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2009-03-09 22:25:03

Shrink predicted for global economy

By ADRIAN CHANG     -    BusinessDay

Last updated 10:26 10/03/2009

The global economy is set to shrink for the first time since World War II as trade plummets, the World Bank says.

Bloomberg News reported that the World Bank's economic outlook, released overnight, made no specific estimate but was more negative than other groups such as the International Monetary Fund, which is predicting 0.5 percent global growth this year.

The World Bank said global growth would be 5 percent below its potential and developing nations would bear the brunt of the contraction, racking up shortfalls of between US$270 and US$700 billion to pay import and service debts. Bloomberg said the World Bank was predicting trade volumes would take their biggest fall in 80 years.

Bloomberg said East Asia would be hardest hit by falling global commerce, with global industrial production expected to fall by as much as 15 percent from 2008.

The World Bank said a surge of debt issuance by rich nations risked "crowding out many developing country borrowers, both private and public."

World Bank president Robert Zoellick said action was needed by governments and multilateral lenders to avoid social and political unrest, Bloomberg reported.

"We need to react in real time to a growing crisis that  is hurting people in developing countries," said  Zoellick.

A World Bank report said 94 out of 116 developing countries had experienced a slowdown in economic growth and the economic crisis would swell the ranks of the poor by 46 million this year.

 

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